22 could determine which of these teams gets into the dance-and which one doesn't. However, New Mexico added a third Quad 3 loss Friday at Air Force and has lost four of five overall.īoth teams have a home game remaining against San Diego State in late February, but it's beginning to feel like the rematch in Boise on Feb. They also won the head-to-head battle-at home in overtime, but still a win. Of the two, the Lobos undeniably have the better top wins, defeating both Saint Mary's and San Diego State on the road. The dream of a five-bid Mountain West is probably kaput after Utah State went 0-2 this week against SDSU and SJSU, and the nightmare of a two-bid MWC is feeling more realistic by the day as BSU and UNM teeter on the bubble. (Though the home loss to Wake Forest is right on the Q2/Q3 cutline.) To remain in line for a bid, they probably need to sweep Michigan, win at Minnesota and win at least one of the remaining home games against Rutgers, Iowa and Purdue. Quad 1-with a nice win at Marquette-with no Q3 or Q4 losses. But the Badgers have fared reasonably well against one of the toughest schedules in the nation, sitting at 5-6 vs. 80 in the NET, even when the Badgers lose at home, it doesn't count as a Quad 1 win for the other team. Keeping Wisconsin in the projected field after its loss at Nebraska feels just plain wrong. UNC must go at least 3-2 the rest of the way, and probably even 4-1 if it expects to be in good shape for a bid prior to the ACC tournament. With nary a Q1 win in eight tries, however, "no bad losses" only gets you so far. A bunch of them even have a Q4 misstep or two. Darn near every bubble team has as at least one Q3 loss. The saving grace for the Tar Heels is that they haven't suffered any bad losses. North Carolina's Caleb Love Grant Halverson/Getty Images All other data is current through the start of play Monday, unless otherwise noted. Records are current through the start of play Tuesday. The others are masterfully aggregated by Bart Torvik. QUAL is the average of the quality metrics (ESPN's BPI, and Sagarin). RES is the average of the team's resume metrics (Kevin Pauga Index and Strength of Record). NET is the NCAA Evaluation Tool, which is the primary sorting metric used by the selection committee and the metric from which quadrant records are derived. One quick "glossary" note: When we take deeper looks at specific teams' resumes, you'll see NET, RES and QUAL. At the end is a list of seeds by conference as a handy reference guide. 1 seeds are ranked in the order they are. After the region-by-region breakdowns, there will be an explanation of why the No. Thanks.įor each of the four regions, we will discuss one team in better shape than it was one week ago and another that-though still in position to dance-has fallen on hard times.īefore that, we will start with the bubble. On a related note, please never expand the tournament field. Kentucky suffered a bad loss at Georgia, but it was only, like, the sixth-worst loss by a bubble team on Saturday alone. North Carolina got a much-needed win, knocking Clemson out of the field, but then lost at home to Miami to remain in dire straits. The bubble, however, is exponentially murkier following yet another week of carnage. 1 overall, while the Cougars remain in the hunt for the top spot in spite of that home loss.Īlabama, Houston, Purdue and Kansas are clearly the projected No. Plenty has happened since then-including a pair of losses by Purdue in the past 10 days-but that marquee road win has helped push the Crimson Tide to No. 1 seed line for the 2023 men's NCAA tournament? When Alabama and Houston squared off in mid-December, who could have guessed that game would make such an inescapable impact on the projected No. Houston's Jamal Shead and Alabama's Mark Sears Ken Murray/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
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